muftimoh
24.05.2021 23:19:22
Of the EMCWF (European), GFS (US) and UKMET (UK) all bring this system across the Southern Windwards. Other top models, like the ICON (German) and ARPEGE (French), have similar outputs to the EMCWF and UKMET. here
See full version: Invest 99L: Tropical Threat to the Windward Islands
Of the EMCWF (European), GFS (US) and UKMET (UK) all bring this system across the Southern Windwards. Other top models, like the ICON (German) and ARPEGE (French), have similar outputs to the EMCWF and UKMET. here
Since 2:00 AM Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring a Tropical Wave, now designated Invest 99L, for tropical cyclone development. Model support for the development of this system into a tropical cyclone over the next several days have remained minimal as it traverses the islands on Sunday into Monday.
Hence, as of Friday morning, we are expecting a very strong tropical wave to traverse the region on Sunday into Monday, bringing locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and agitated seas to all Southern Windward Islands. [links]
As of the 8:00 AM Tropical Weather Outlook, this system has a low chance, 20%, of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours and a low chance, 30%, of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days.
Conditions appeared favorable for development, with the SHIPS model diagnosing light wind shear of 5 – 10 knots after the next 12 hours and warm sea surface temperatures between 28°C and 29°C and a fairly supportive moisture envelope.
Marigot Bay
The most beautiful Bay in the Caribbean. Surrounded by bars and restaurants. Marigot has 24-hour/day security and is a port of entry for the island. here
Saint Lucia is a volcanic island where the twin peaks of The two Pitons rise over 2,000 feet at the water's edge. In land, the rain forests shelter wild orchids, giant ferns and birds of paradise. St. Lucia is approximately a 25 NM mile sail from the south of Martinique.
A yacht charter in St. Lucia is an unforgettable experience. One of the most exquisite islands in the Eastern Caribbean, St Lucia's enchants visitors with dramatic mountain scenery, its sulphur springs, drive-in volcano, tropical rain forests, waterfalls and secluded beaches. [links]
A yacht charter in St. Lucia is an unforgettable experience. One of the most exquisite islands in the Eastern Caribbean, St Lucia's enchants visitors with dramatic mountain scenery, its sulphur springs, drive-in volcano, tropical rain forests, waterfalls and secluded beaches.
Rodney Bay
Within this well protected lagoon with many opportunities for provisions, fuel and water, boat repairs . You will find excellent French Creole cuisine throughout the restaurants in the area. Seafood includes fresh local crab, lobster and conch, a large shellfish served from a barbecue or in a delicious spicy sauce.
Windward and leeward aren't frivolous terms. When applied to mountains, they are important factors in weather and climate—one is responsible for enhancing precipitation in the vicinity of mountain ranges, while the other withholds it. more
Mountain ranges act as barriers to the flow of air across the surface of the earth. When a parcel of warm air travels from a low valley region to the foothills of a mountain range, it is forced to rise along the slope of the mountain (the windward side) as it encounters higher terrain. As the air is lifted up the mountain slope, it cools as it rises—a process known as "adiabatic cooling." This cooling often results in the formation of clouds, and, eventually, precipitation that falls on the windward slope and at the summit. Known as "orographic lifting," this event is one of three ways precipitation can form. more
In all circumstances in which the terms are used, the windward side of the reference point is the one that faces the prevailing wind. The leeward—or "lee"—side is the one sheltered from the wind by the reference point.
The Northwestern United States and the Front Range Foothills of Northern Colorado are two examples of regions that regularly see precipitation induced by orographic lift. more
There are several yellow-level alerts in effect for Barbados over the next 72 hours, concerning excess rainfall, marine interests and wind. [links]
Invest 97L is organizing on Tuesday night, with a broad area of showers and thunderstorms near and surrounding the center of circulation, nearing the criteria needed to be designated a tropical depression. This tropical disturbance is attached to Tropical Wave 15, analyzed along 37W from 15N southward, moving west at 15 to 20 knots. The center of this circulation is located at 8.1N, 37.5W, placing it approximately 2,600 kilometers east-southeast of Trinidad and Tobago.
However, this disturbance is already on the cusp of being designated as a tropical depression. Over the next 24 to 48 hours, this disturbance will be moving through an area with high sea surface temperatures, up to 30 Celsius, high overall humidity, and little to no wind shear and light upper-level winds are forecast to allow the system to organize gradually. more
Individual model runs are just one possible outcome from a myriad of outcomes. Weather does not always follow what is modeled, and even what may be forecast. Beware of individual model runs being posted on social media.
With a compact system, the strongest winds and heaviest showers are forecast to remain north of the center of circulation, keeping much of the adverse weather north of T&T. However, slight shifts in the track could result in more adverse impacts for T&T.